Is Commercial Real Estate the Next Storm?

Has the commercial real estate market reached bottom? Or do we have yet to see the worst? This is the question Denis O'Neill, an NAI NBS broker who specializes in the sale of retail properties and land, addresses in a column in today's Daily Journal of Commerce.

Here's an excerpt:

Just when it appears we finally have some good economic news, many investors wonder if another financial storm is brewing. The residential market, if not at the bottom, appears close to it. Though the number of residential foreclosures and loans 90 days past due are still rising in 2010, and unemployment is holding steady, few experts see significant additional drops in residential values on the horizon.

So is commercial real estate the next shoe to drop?

Of the $3.4 trillion in commercial debt outstanding, a congressional oversight panel in February estimated that $1.4 trillion will reach maturity between now and 2014; up to 50 percent is held by local banks. Residential defaults led the way, particularly development loans. With plummeting values and no income stream, these loans were the first to be turned back to lenders. Banks’ problem loans are near-term and dwarf the $380 billion of commercial mortgage-backed securities debt that matures from 2015 to 2017. Furthermore, the vast majority of bank exposure to these securities is held by large banks. The big banks have demonstrated the ability to both raise equity and generate profits.

Click here for the full article.