New Report Says CRE Industry is Leveling Off

A recent survey of senior real estate executives suggests that the commercial real estate market is leveling off, but uncertainty remains about how the recovery will play out.

The Real Estate Roundtable’s quarterly “Sentiment Survey” for Second Quarter 2010 was released this week, and provided some hope that commercial real estate has reached bottom. It also said more capital is available, but is limited by markets and property types.

Our friends at NAI Global posted this summary:

Of the 100+ senior real estate executives participating in the Q2 survey, 82% characterized market conditions today as better than a year ago (up from 73% in Q1), although only 17% said conditions are “much better.” The “Current Conditions” index hit a low point of 17 in Q4 2008 (during the near-collapse of U.S. financial markets); rose to 56 in the final months of 2009; and now stands at 74.

“Clearly, the sense of gloom that prevailed a year ago has eased, property values no longer seem to be in a freefall, and market participants are feeling more confident,” said Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer. “But, while sentiment is up, that’s not to say things are ‘good.’ Refinancing remains difficult for many and defaults are still rising, which means more pain ahead.”

In a sign that values may be leveling off, only 28% of those polled perceived asset prices today as lower than they were a year ago, compared with 57% in the previous quarter. Correspondingly, 46% said valuations today are better than a year ago, compared with only 22% in Q1. Looking ahead, 56% expect valuations to be “somewhat higher” a year from now and 35% expect them to remain “about the same,” compared to 42% and 35%, respectively, in the previous survey.

In another important metric, the Q2 survey shows “signs of life” in the debt and capital markets, although numerous respondents qualified their statements by saying improved availability is limited to certain parts of the market or types of properties (e.g., with positive cash flows). Of the 65% who said debt capital is more available today than one year ago, 27% characterized availability as “much better.” By contrast, only 19% of Q1 survey participants felt conditions were “much better” than a year earlier.

On the equity side, 76% said availability is better than one year ago (with 26% characterizing it as “much better”). However, the number of respondents predicting conditions will be better “one year from today” declined from 75% in Q1 to 66% in Q2, with a corresponding increase in the number who expect equity availability to remain “about the same.”

What do you think? Is your market seeing signs of life?